Iran War: Oil Crisis + Trump Tariffs Survival Playbook

Iran Hormuz Crisis escalates and is now closed: US-Israel strikes trigger Iranian retaliation, IRGC warnings halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply at risk). Brent crude prices surging, with analysts warning $100-150+ if disruptions persist. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) suspend transits—shipping chaos compounds delays and fuel costs.

At the same time, Trump's defiant response to February Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs: 10% global import duty under Section 122 (effective Feb 24, 150 days max), with indications to hike to 15%. Shadow trade wars emerge via licensing schemes, potential fees, and workarounds bypassing oversight—adding volatility to already strained supply chains.

Host Justin Hayden Miller (global trade strategist, ex-Big 4/ top law firm) unpacks the paradox: independent crises amplifying each other. Hear his prescient Nov 2025 warning (Episode 15 clip) on fuel spikes + tariffs—now playing out.

Key takeaways & survival guide:

Oil hedging, supply chain delays, tariff inflation, rethink strategy, vertical integration, renewables self-sufficiency, onshoring, hyperlocal model, navigate uncertainty, pre-clearance, licensing shifts, multipolar trade realignment

Essential for business leaders, importers, CFOs facing compounded risks. We're in a gale—prepare for the hurricane.

Disclaimer: Not legal/tax/financial/business advice—consult qualified professionals concerning your specific circumstances.

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Transcript

Justin Hayden Miller 0:00

I warned you last November that fuel spikes and further tariffs were coming. The US and Israel are attacking Iran. The Middle East situation is escalating. Oil prices are exploding, with analysts' warning of spikes to $100 a barrel if tensions persist, or even $120, $150 or higher if there's a prolonged closure or blockade of the strait. Trump's applying 15% global tariffs and a trade war is looming. Uncertainty everywhere. Because there is already a shadow trade war in play. In this episode, I'll give you the playbook to help protect your business. Deciphering the policies, trends, and geopolitics reshaping global trade. Well, I turned on the news this morning, and the US-Israeli strikes are still continuing on Iran, triggering retaliatory actions. And all this is giving rise to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices Brent Crude surged 12% to around $82 a barrel in weekend trading, with 20% of global oil supply at risk. MSC, Mersk, Hapak Lloyd were all suspending transits through the strait. And at the same time, the US Supreme Court's February ruling striking down Trump's IEPA tariffs has sparked Trump's defiant 15% global tariff rate. We'll interweave the Middle East escalation, adding petrol oil to the fire, which are turning supply chains upside down, driving oil prices up and threatening worldwide logistics. With the tariff saga continuing, it's showing how each is amplifying the other. Because they're all independent, these issues. I'll unpack that paradox, layer in the Middle East conflict's real-time impacts, and wrapped with a unique take that might make you rethink, perhaps, your entire trade strategy. Back in November 2025, in the episode 15 of the podcast, I advised businesses to prepare exactly for this type of scenario. Listen to the clip of what I said precisely. Which will create major uncertainty in the shipping industry. Companies, you need to start considering stress testing your operations, factoring in potential significant fuel cost spikes, say of up to say of 30%. Also factor in potential tariffs. Prescient, predictive. In today's episode, we'll unpack how these dual drivers intersect and why that advice from five months ago is the reason why you should be considering what you should do next. Remember the paradox bomb I introduced in a previous episode? Well, another one's coming up. Because whilst many people and countries are happy, even delighted with the US Supreme Court's decision limiting President Trump's toolbox on tariffs, well, to say the least, it adds layers of volatility and unpredictability. It even creates the risk of more trade wars. And today's developments and what's happening in the Middle East means oil volatility from Hormuz threats highlight just how fuel and trade tariff risks can compound very quickly. Companies no longer have a choice. Proactive scenario planning is no longer an option. It's obvious that risks are mounting, but the solutions, they're not straightforward anymore. This demands a strategic rethink by multinationals. Let's start with the hottest and most important development, the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, that have escalated into open conflict now. Iran has retaliated with missile attacks on US bases and Israeli positions and even other countries. The situation's escalating. And the Revolutionary Guards have warned vessels that no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz, effectively disrupting or threatening to halt traffic through this vital trade choke point. Of course, the Strait of Hormuz handles about 20 million barrels of oil daily. That's roughly 20% of global supply. And that's oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE. Oil prices are already reacting, and Brent went up to $82, as I mentioned. That's around about 12%. I was on the marine traffic sites this morning just seeing what's happening there, and I've noticed that there seem to be many, many ships anchored and waiting around the strait. Disruption of oil around this route is most likely to hit India. It imports a huge amount of its oil through this route. But also China can import up around 40% of its oil through it. So whilst the US surely doesn't want to see, you know, increased oil prices, because that gives rise to inflation and that could create political issues for Trump at home, the US might nevertheless see this as a double-edged sword. Because China is probably going to suffer more than the US because of any disruptions of oil in this region. But we've got Mersk, we've got MSC, we've got Hapag Lloyd, all suspending movement of their ships through the strait at the moment. And as we've seen through the decades, these energy shocks feed directly into trade volatility. But nevertheless, significant shipping costs only have a small effect on the end price of a product. We discussed that in a previous episode with Simon Ward. It's more of a question of the supply of the oil itself and the delays that are the real issue. And this is why it intersects with US trade policy. What are my takeaways? I see Trump, his ideas of circumventing legal obstacles that he's encountered. I think the consequence of it is what I would describe as shadow trade wars. They're going to be even less explicit. I'm just thinking about this now. I hadn't thought of it before. As a trade war, you imagine two armies conventional. I think the trade wars are going to become less and less conventional. Guerrilla trade wars, less evident, less clear, less explicit. Shadow trade wars. Using licenses and emergencies where it is possible to bypass oversight, create even more volatility and opaqueness than the overt tariffs that existed previously. What I have seen throughout my career is that many companies hold off for a while and then eventually embed these risks into their pricing. That's the worry. And if companies don't do that correctly, they can potentially price themselves out of the market. These shadow wars that I'm saying exist now, I believe they're forcing multipolar shifts. They'll accelerate an end to the world-based order that Mark Carney spoke of recently. It will accelerate multipolar trade arrangements into different camps that Mark Carney predicted. We're in a sea storm, and businesses cannot necessarily fight against those trade winds anymore. It's all very well being a consultant saying, you know, I can tell you what to do and you can get ahead of your competitors. I say sometimes it's necessary to take your sails down and just follow the wind and the currents until the gale dies down a bit. The CEO, the CFO, the the biggest responsibility, the captain of the ship, his or her biggest job is now to ensure that the ship doesn't run into the rocks. Uncertainty with the Middle East conflict, uncertainty as to potential closure of the Strait of Ormuz. There's uncertainty now in respect of fuel pricing. There's uncertainty because of physical trade routes, shipping routes. There's uncertainty because of delays in these routes as to when supplies will be delivered. The standard solutions here are, you know, map your exposure, analyze oil prices, supply chain delays, and hedge fuel prices. We're almost a little bit late now. Now I think, and this is may well be an eventual solution, is that companies are so tired of putting out the fire on these issues and not knowing what to do and jumping left and realizing they should have jumped right, that they should be considering becoming self-sufficient in risky areas, where outsourcing can't always solve the problem. I'm thinking vertical integration of renewables. If you look at all these AI companies in the US, they're creating their own energy provision systems, their own generators. And I'm sure it's because of this. When you're dependent on anything, you're dependent on it. Rather than to solve the problem of the thing in front of you, consider how to reduce your dependence on it. That necessitates major strategic business decisions. Because you need to go to specific lawyers and advisors concerning your specific issues. And I'd certainly be happy to help you. But I believe that what countries should be as regards the US, for example, what they should be considering is whether it's in their interest to get to pre-clear licenses. Will pre-clearance help you? Acting now rather than later? Potentially shifting into free exempt categories for licenses, if it's possible. You know, I I do believe that the tax should follow the business. And another consequence of all this disruption, etc., is people are changing their business models. They're changing their business in order to suit taxes and tariffs. I suppose that's what Trump wants. He wants people to change their business model and set up in the United States. But what I would be saying to businesses is consider how you can extract yourself from these issues in the first place. Go to the route. If you're dependent upon supply chains to get you energy, can you source that locally in order to circumvent those supply chains completely? And with renewable energy, that's potentially becoming more possible. And it's no coincidence. I really do believe that the US knows full well that if they can't if companies can't get their energy through the Strait of Hormuz, well the US can just sell more LNG to them potentially. Actually create a market for them. Switch to a hyperlocal business model. And what does that mean? It essentially means onshoring. And that's the tendency at the moment. I've been saying it for months, I've been saying it for over a year, two years, several years. It will happen. We're in a gale. Don't be caught out. Prepare for a hurricane. Thanks for having listened to the podcast. The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, then you should engage an appropriately qualified person to provide you specific advisory services in the field. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this podcast are my own, and do not necessarily represent the views, thoughts, or opinions of any law firm, nor that of any third party, other person, company, or organization. Stay tuned for the next episode.