Santa battling Trump's Tariffs & Melting Arctic Geopolitics: 2025 Global Trade Christmas Special

In this special Christmas episode, host Justin Hayden Miller examines 2025's record-breaking global trade—surpassing $35 trillion—through the lens of Father Christmas and the challenges posed by Trump's tariffs, Arctic geopolitics, and climate change.

Key Topics

• Trump's tariffs and their impact on holiday imports, toys, and global supply chains
• Melting Arctic ice opening new shipping routes (Northern Sea Route, Northwest Passage) amid rising US-Russia-China tensions and Trump's Greenland discussions
• Geopolitical volatility from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East affecting energy and grain markets
• Resilience in global trade despite barriers, with insights on Brexit customs rules and air cargo logistics

Outlook

A reflective year-end analysis on trade resilience, potential 2026 risks, and the evolving energy revolution.

Track Santa's journey: NORADSanta.org

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Transcript

Justin Hayden Miller 0:01

Welcome to Global Trade Deciphered. I'm your host, Justin Hayden Miller. Decoding the policies shaping global trade and emerging trends. Hello everyone. I wanted a Christmas wintry feel for this end of year bumper edition episode. So went and got myself a cold, especially for the occasion. The things I'll do in order to be authentic. Bear with me and my froggy voice for today, please. I've replaced the standard cup of coffee with a hot toddy grog. But because I'm recording this midweek, unfortunately there's no scotch in it. So it's actually worth getting a cold just to make these things occasionally. They really are delicious. Well anyway. And what a year it's been, 2025. On a number of levels, including on global trade, tackling the many obstacles, wars, climate change effects, and of course tariffs. But what a resilient year as well. Because even with these obstacles, world trade reached a record value exceeding 35 trillion, an increase of approximately 2.2 trillion or 7% from 2024. In my previous episodes, I said that I wanted to look at world trade and global trade from different perspectives. And that's precisely what I intend to do in today's episode. Because I'm intending on analysing 2025's Global Trade Year through the eyes of Father Christmas. Don't get me wrong, this is going to be a serious episode with some very serious points, so bear with me. Remember, many businesses do much, if not most of their turnover over the Christmas and New Year period. And that's no less the case for Santa Claus. Remember, Father Christmas can deliver quicker than Jeff Bezos. He doesn't need AI either. He's been doing it for years, before even the computer was invented. He doesn't leave a note telling you to pick it up, your presence at the local launderette, and he comes down the chimney or breaks and enters without any evidence whatsoever. But poor Father Christmas has had a job on his hands in 2025 with geopolitical obstacles and Trump's tariffs. Let's start with the geopolitical. Father Christmas is associated with the North Pole, of course. Many say that's where he's resident. But 2025 has seen some major Arctic tensions brewing, which is making trade and Father Christmas's job even more difficult. You see, I'm talking about important Arctic sea routes, offering shorter paths between Europe and Asia, or even North America. This can reduce distances by using these Arctic routes of up to forty percent, compared to traditional routes going via the Suez Canal, for example. And all this is getting attention and interest because of melting sea ice. Climate change. Whether it's for the better or worse, many see this as clearing routes in the northernmost parts of the northern hemisphere. The melting ice clears shipping routes. There are three in particular the Northern Sea Route, NSR, along Russia's coast, the Northwest Passage, the NWP, through Canada, and emerging transpolar sea routes across the central Arctic. And so this melting ice is creating a new emerging element in world trade, but it's not as simple as that because the melting ice is actually creating obstacles rather than actually clearing them, because it's creating icebergs, and huge masses of non-moving ice are easier to avoid than smaller icebergs that manage to sink the Titanic, for example. The Arctic seems to be heating up in more senses than one. It's a mix, even a cauldron, of US, Russia, Chinese shipping interests, civil and even military, which creates new unpredictable elements. This is just one example how apparent climate change is having a real impact on trade, geopolitics, and a mix of the two potentially concerning future world trade tensions. And all this is happening in Father Christmas's backyard. Question surely poses itself whether Father Christmas may one day need a Russian and US passport to be able to get these children's presence outside the Arctic at all. Because Santa Claus may already be getting a US passport soon. Countries, including Denmark, consider that Father Christmas's primary residence is not the North Pole at all, but Greenland. Donald Trump in March 2025 addressing Greenlanders said, We strongly support your right to determine your own future. And if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America. This has often been portrayed as a completely crazy idea in media outside the United States. But let me tell you that I heard Sir Richard Deerlove, who's the former head of UK intelligence MI6, say, I wonder whether Greenland really will at some point in the future join the United States. There would be very strong reasons and huge benefit to the Greenlanders if they were a state of the United States. And he went on to say, it does have a certain logic. So Father Christmas could be an American citizen yet. If Father Christmas is living in Greenland and producing his toys in Greenland, dispatching them throughout the world and notably to children in the United States, well of course this will have the added benefits that Trump's tariffs won't apply to Santa Claus's toys at all. Because whether Santa Claus lives and manufactures his toys at the North Pole or Lapland, these places aren't part of the United States. And US tariffs apply, especially with Trump's America First policy. When on the second of April this year he applied Liberation Day tariffs. But it is worth pointing out that his US trade deficit is reducing as a consequence. So we need to wait a little bit longer. 2026 will tell us whether this policy is working for good or not. Because a lot of importations have been front-loaded. People have imported early in order to avoid the tariffs. We need to wait a little bit more time to see how that spans out, to see the medium and long-term trends, to assess the effect on the US economy and the world economy. Because of Trump's new tariff rules, even if the toys are produced by Father Christmas in the North Pole, when he brings them over into the United States, at least a 10% tariff will apply. The North Pole doesn't belong to a particular nation at all, but that doesn't get out of the tariff. Let alone all the the admin that this is all creating for him. And if the admin is not up to date and correct, when he brings those toys into the US or any other country that's applying these rules, Santa's sleigh is going to get impounded, and the presence are going to be blocked, and there are going to be lots of very unhappy children. Trump surely can't afford that. And therefore I wonder whether Father Christmas is really behind the US Supreme Court litigation on tariffs. Why? Because in my episode earlier this year with Peter Quinter, a respected US international trade lawyer, when we discussed together the US Supreme Court litigation and the chances that Trump's tariffs could be overturned, we discussed in that episode that you can listen to that the litigation that this all hangs around is Learning Resources Inc. versus Trump. And Learning Resources Inc. is an Illinois-based educational toy company. And the primary plaintiff in that US Supreme Court litigation challenging President Trump's tariffs. You can listen to my discussion with Peter where we discuss the technical elements and where he provides an opinion on whether it's going to succeed or not. But it's interesting that it's a small toy company, and larger firms like Mattel or Hasbro have basically stayed on the sidelines. They're watching to see what happens. Is Father Christmas behind in some way Learning Resources Inc.? I don't know. But what are Trump's own views on Christmas trade? Defending his tariff measures, President Trump has said, Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of thirty dolls, and maybe two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more. And on another occasion he said the young lady doesn't need thirty-seven dolls. She could be very happy with two or three or four or five. And you know what? I think Santa Claus probably agrees with President Trump, not wanting to spoil children too much. Materialism is great and good for the economy on condition that it's manufactured in the US, according to Trump. But anyway, talking about sea lanes, etc., Father Christmas actually transports his toys not by sea but by air freight. He shifts his stock by air using a sleigh and flying reindeers. And therefore he he falls within the 1% of trade that is transported by air cargo. I was I was at a Thanksgiving party this year. I'm British, English, not American, as you can probably tell from my accent. But I have some American friends and they invited me to a Thanksgiving party, which was really quite interesting. And when I was there, an American lady asked me whether I was, you know, following Father Christmas's movements. And of course I said, you know, I'm preparing for an episode on Father Christmas to whether she asked her if she had any information. And she told me something that I genuinely didn't know. In 1955, a Sears advertisement in a Colorado Springs newspaper misprinted a phone number meant for children to call Father Christmas Santa Claus. By accident, the number rang the operations hotline of the Continental Air Defense Command of the United States, Conad at the time. Colonel Schupp, the duty officer on the Air Defence Command, answered the call from a child asking for Santa Claus. And he originally apparently he was a bit stern. He thought it was a joke. He wasn't amused by the idea. You know, he's got an important job, you know, protecting the United States against nuclear war or whatever. But he did soften when he realized that it was a genuine child, asking a j a genuine question. And he played along and he explained where Santa Claus was in the sky with his sleigh, etc., on his radar or whatever that he was looking at. And then he instructed his staff to give Santa sightings to the other children that were undoubtedly calling them the wrong number. And they decided to turn this mishap into a public relations opportunity. This has sparked the tradition that has continued since then, where the North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, tracks Santa Claus's movements by radar and satellite, and they they published this on the internet. I'm following it, but it really comes alive on Christmas Eve, apparently. And I do recommend that you check it out if you're not already aware of it. It's NORADSanta.org. I'll leave it in the show notes. New regulations in the US are not Santa's only obstacles. We've had Brexit. And of course it depends, you know, how he comes into the United Kingdom, whether he comes in from the West or the East, as to what particular rules apply and tariffs apply, whatever. But you know, he also has the border trade operating model, this UK customs regime that he now has to contend with, which is actually called bottom for some reason. Well BTOM. And this concerns food and the importation of animals and live animals. Which is undoubtedly important for Father Christmas, because you know, coming in on his sleigh with the reindeer, you know, they're live animals. So I mean, technically, he has to have an export health certificate for these reindeer, the EHC. Because, you know, live animals, these reindeer, have to be accompanied not just by Father Christmas, but by an appropriate EHC signed by an official vet in the EU country of origin. You know, question, you know, if he comes through Europe, uh does it originate from Europe? You know, you've got all these issues to contend with. And, you know, specific rules apply depending upon the animal species. I mean, I've looked on the list and reindeers aren't listed there. Not the flying variety anyway. And he has to get a pre notification, he has to submit it common health entry document, a C H E D, at least one working day in advance. So he has to do this at least by Christmas Eve. So, you know, we're joking here, but it does illustrate that there is becoming more and more administration, more and more customs barriers throughout the world. This is creating significant cost for a lot of businesses and delays that I discussed even in the last episode in respective CBAM. I've spoken to a number of important companies exporting foodstuffs into the UK that were very, very concerned by this rule. Now, the UK has phased this in. There are no routine veterinary checks on the UK border side in order to expedite the process. And there are ongoing UK-EU negotiations aiming to reduce or remove many of these requirements even further in the future. But no real changes are yet in effect. I discussed this with Richard Corbett, the former head of the Labour Party at the European Parliament. We discussed this in detail together in our episode. But Father Christmas is still confronted by this, and a lot of other companies are as well. Looking back at 2025, how how do we label it? It's a year marked by significant volatility. Volatility on tariffs and major geopolitical turns in particular. And energy markets, gas, petrol, etc., with different sanctions being applied. We have turmoil in Gaza, created issues for shipping in the Red Sea and the surrounding areas. Father Christmas has to contend with all this. We all do, indirectly. Many of the goods that we consume pass through these routes. But at the same time, the economy's been very resilient against all this volatility. The US didn't go into a major recession. The European Union's pretty flat. But if AI does not hold up, if it does not deliver, or too many AI companies go under this AI thing, which is you know a stick holding up the world economy, in my opinion, well the consequences will be very, very serious. We're living an energy revolution, a renewable energy revolution. These revolutions are so significant, as important as the Industrial Revolution, and several at the same time. It seems to me that this is part of a growing bubble. It's not a single bubble, it's like a bath, you know, you get in the bath, you you swish the water, there are lots of bubbles. And sometimes when you put the soap in the bath, all the bubbles just pop and disappear. There's a risk that this will happen in 2026. I hope not. What did Dickens say in A Town of Two Cities in the opening paragraph? Best of times, the worst of times. I do sometimes really believe that. History repeating itself. So as I've said, you know, Father Christmas has had his work cut out in 2025, but I'm not optimistic that it's going to be any easier for him in 2026. In fact, I think it's going to be more difficult. What does that mean? Well, I just hope it's simply recessionary pressures and not worse than that. Yeah, Father Christmas has got his work cut out. And since I'm between projects at the moment, I'd love a client like Father Christmas. He's got ever increasing issues. He lives in a potential future conflict zone. Trade and supply chains are subject to a major, major revolution. I mean, of course, Father he was around for the Industrial Revolution, I'm sure. Even he might be thinking this is nothing compared to that. Yeah, I'd think he'd make a great client. He he looks okay, he looks he looks nice, pleasant, probably pays his invoices on time. So do contact me if you know how I might reach him. If he's looking for a global trade advisor and strategist to cope with all the issues that we've been talking about today. And despite the volatility and the tariffs, I'm going to wish you some very, very happy holidays. It's been a really enjoyable year. I've really enjoyed doing these podcasts. I'm doing them a little bit more frequently now, but I hope you're enjoying them as much as I am. I wish you a very happy Christmas, season greetings, and a lovely new year. If you're listening to this, then thank you for having listened to the podcast from beginning to end. The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, then you should engage an appropriately qualified person to provide you specific advisory services in the field. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this podcast are my own and do not necessarily represent the views, thoughts, or opinions of any law firm nor that of any third party, other person, company, or organization. Stay tuned for the next episode.