AI Tsunami: Global Trade Boom or Bust?

Episode 14: AI Tsunami - Global Trade Boom or Bust?

AI's Impact on International Trade: Boom or Deglobalization?

Host Justin Hayden Miller, global trade lawyer at a top European law firm, analyzes AI's dual impact on global trade. Will it boost efficiency and growth, or drive localization and self-sufficiency? Insights from historical AI milestones, 2025 trade forecasts, and quantum computing trends for European policymakers.

Tailored for senior executives, policymakers, trade professionals and those interested in geopolitics. 

Keywords: AI impact, international trade 2025, globalization deglobalization, AI supply chain optimization, 3D printing robotics, onshoring reshoring, WTO AI projections, Deloitte Tech Trends 2025, UNCTAD trade uncertainties, how AI affects global supply chains, quantum computing trade.

Meta Description: Explore AI's impact on global trade in 2025. Boom or bust? Insights for executives on globalization, 3D printing & more. 

Episode Highlights:

• AI Boosting Trade: Optimizes logistics, predictive chains, tokenized docs, and customs. UNCTAD: Trade uncertainties cost developing countries billions—AI mitigates risks.
• AI Driving Localization: Accelerates robotics and 3D printing, eroding offshoring. Bamboo Lab's PrintMon Maker enables text-to-3D; market to hit $88B by 2030.
• Adoption Speed: Deep Blue (1997) vs. ChatGPT (100M users in months); beats 50-year video tech lag.
• Key Projections: WTO: 34-37% trade rise by 2040 with AI. Deloitte Tech Trends 2025: AI fuels efficiency.
• Risks & Outlook: Data wars, regulatory Luddism, quantum computing acceleration.

Timestamps:

• Intro: AI's Trade Tsunami
• History: Kasparov vs. Deep Blue
• AI Trade Enhancements: Logistics & UNCTAD
• Tech Adoption: Video Calls to AI
• WTO/Deloitte Projections
• Localization: Robotics & 3D Printing 
• Policies: Tariffs & Onshoring
• Risks: Data, Regulations, Parallels
• Conclusions

Resources:

• WTO World Trade Report 2025: AI to boost trade 34-37% by 2040. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/wtr_15sep25_e.htm
• Deloitte Tech Trends 2025: AI in business transformation. https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/technology-management/tech-trends.html
• UNCTAD: Uncertainty as the new tariff, costing developing economies. https://unctad.org/news/uncertainty-new-tariff-costing-global-trade-and-hurting-developing-economies
• 3D Printing Market: $88.2B by 2030. https://www.grandviewresearch.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Intro: AI's Trade Tsunami
• 1:08 Gary Kasparov v. Deep Blue
• 2:14 AI’s Trade Adoption Curve: Logistics & UNCTAD
• 3:36 Tech Adoption: Video Calls to AI
• 4:48 WTO/Deloitte Projections
• 6:40 3D Printing As A Catalyst
• 7:53 Onshoring and Reshoring
• 9:24 Risks: Data, Regulations, Parallels
• 12:37 Conclusions

Transcript

Justin Hayden Miller: 0:00

In this episode, we'll be analyzing whether AI will make or break globalization. Welcome to Global Trade Deciphered. I'm your host, Justin Hayden Miller, decoding the policies shaping global trade and emerging trends. Artificial intelligence has advanced at a breathtaking pace over the last couple of years, making leaps that redefine what's possible. But I wanted the fundamental ideas for this episode to come from organic thinking, from my own grey matter. So here goes. The question at the heart of this episode is whether AI acts as a tsunami that supercharges global trade flows, boosting efficiency and volumes, or if it redirects those flows inward, catalyzing local production and self-sufficiency and diminishing global trade. I'm gonna analyse both sides with you. To set the stage, let's recall the story of Gary Kasparov and IBM's Deep Blue Computer Program way back in 1997, when Deep Blue became the first machine to beat a reigning world chess champion. Kasparov played against the supercomputer closely followed by the world. I remember it. Deep Blue famously won. And it was one of those moments when people realized that computers were surpassing humans. A crucial moment in world history. Deep Blue was in fact an early form of AI. Unlike modern machine learning-based AI systems, it wasn't capable of learning or adapting beyond its programmed rules. It simply combined human-engineered knowledge and brute force computation, 200 million moves per second, to achieve superhuman performance. Today, we see exponential processing power to the power of machine learning taking computer intelligence to a breathtaking level. We're in a transition phase with AI and global trade. Human supply chain managers can still compete, but AI speed is the game changer. The scales are tipping. Not just for chess, but for everything, including world trade. Will this AI tsunami flood global markets with efficiency or redirect flows inward to local shores? Imagine AI supercharging global trade by optimizing logistics through real-time data analysis, predictive supply chains, tokenized documentation and streamlined customs procedures. The UNCTAD highlights that trade uncertainties cost developing countries billions annually. AI could level that playing field by minimizing risks, reducing costs, and enabling more equitable participation in global markets. The speed of current AI changes is not only thanks to the development of these new stunning technologies, but I would say even more importantly, due to their exponential adoption. This compares with snail pace slower rollouts of past tech like personal computers or modems. Remember the video conference scene in Stanley Kubrick's film 2001, A Space Odyssey, where Dr. Haywood Floyd video conferences his young daughter from SpaceStation 5 to talk about her upcoming birthday. The movie was released in 1968, and not many people know it, not even the people watching it in the movie theaters at the time when it was released. But that video telephone technology already existed then. AT ⁇ T's picture phone was demonstrated in 1964. But it wasn't until nearly 50 years later that Apple made this type of technology generally available to consumers in 2010 with its FaceTime app. 50 years later. AI though is being adopted at a far faster pace. For example, ChatGPT reached 100 million users in just months. We always feel as though we're in the future. In the 1980s, people felt futuristic when using a double tape recorder. But AI is different. AI could supercharge global trade. The World Trade Organization's latest report projects a 40% increase in global trade by 2040 if industries prioritize the right developments. According to the report, AI could lead to significant increases in trade and GDP, with global trade projected to rise by 34 to 37% across various scenarios. The report emphasizes that high-income economies could see trade growth up to 35%, while developing regions might experience even higher gains if they adopt AI effectively. Deloitte's Tech Trends 2025 report states that AI will lead growth, particularly in the context of business transformation, efficiency, etc. But let's analyze the other side of the coin. Let's talk about how AI could catalyse local production, potentially redirecting trade inwards, imploding and reducing globalization. Globalization arose because of the theory of comparative advantage, which I spoke about in episode 7, made in America, but also because of low labor costs in certain countries. AI, which is accelerating robotics, is gradually eroding the need to export production because of high labor costs, especially where local energy prices are much lower. I say that this is why the US is intending on reducing energy prices. Low energy prices are good for lowering inflation, but especially in order to boost made in America policies. Because AI is supercharging technologies like 3D printing. Tools now convert text prompts into print-ready models, making 3D manufacturing viable for mass customization. This permits local production, which also dodges global disruptions. So let's analyze this in more detail because AI's role in promoting 3D printing is nothing short of groundbreaking or even global breaking. AI is actively advancing additive manufacturing by streamlining the entire workflow from design to production, making it faster, more reliable, and scalable at much lower costs and with much less transportation, making deliveries quicker. Don't think just in time logistics. Think bang on time logistics. Just last year in October 2024, Bamboo Lab launched PrintmonMaker, which lets users generate multicolour 3D models from simple text prompts or images. You no longer need to be an expert anymore to get the design of a product done and to order it. Overall, projections show AI driving 3D printing to over $100 billion by 2030. This will drive onshoring and reshoring, permitting Trump's policy to convince companies to produce in the US, especially with his combined program, a carrot and stick approach using tariffs. But this could apply to other major economies where like technologies and measures apply. So I say AI is a powerhouse enabler for onshoring, building new domestic production and reshoring, relocating from abroad, especially in manufacturing. It will accelerate robotic automation, boost productivity, ensuring more efficient supply chains and countering higher costs and skills gaps. Economically, 3D printing reduces waste and is said to potentially reduce costs by 50 to 90%. AI-driven advancements in 3D printing and onshoring reshoring will likely reduce global trade and globalization overall. AI will shift the balance towards localized, regionalized production, creating a form of deglobalization, regionalization, or as I prefer to call it, rationalization. And current AI means that information is being made obsolete almost daily, forcing constant adaptation but also amplifying cross-border exchanges. In trade terms, this could empower similar players in developing markets to compete, but it also risks widening gaps if rich countries hoard AI advancements. But whilst AI boosts flows, it could simultaneously spark data wars, nations imposing barriers to protect their data, countering the growth and favoring regional or local alternatives. This ties into historical parallels. AI regulations might even be seen as a form of government-led Luddism, comparable to when English early 19th-century artisans protested against the growing use of machines in the productive process. Many nowadays imagine the route that AI will take, considering the consequences as undisputed. But during the Industrial Revolution, predictions often backfired. Some thought progress would unify society through shared prosperity, but instead it intensified class conflicts, giving rise even to socialism and labor movements. How often do I attend conferences with keynote speakers hammering the message data is the new key or data is the new currency? They tend to be from consultancy firms wanting to sell data extraction. Sure, there is more than an element of truth in this, but I argue they're missing the bigger picture. Most analysts focus on indirect deficiencies, logistics, data management, arguing this in itself is the benefit. You can't analyze what the benefits of something is unless you realize the destination where it's taking you. If professional roles like lawyers, doctors, and accountants vanish, roles once thought untouchable, the distribution of wealth shifts dramatically. It could create new class structures with a tech elite emerging from the ruins of traditional jobs. People buying products will be performing different functions in society. And that is what companies need to analyze. Altering trade patterns and hierarchies of nations are likely to change. AI will demand new economic theories, as I alluded to in episode four, The Art of Trade Wars. Human decisions factor in emotions. If AI dominates, trade models must account for emotionless choices, potentially stabilizing markets, or creating unforeseen cascades. Like the 1987 London stock market crash, where autonomous computers illogically sold stock, snowballing a $500 billion loss. People seem to think that Donald Trump is the reason for the potential disintegration of globalization. But that simply is not the case when looking at the facts and the data. In fact, global trade today is actually increasing. And when you look at Donald Trump's policies, they're merely part of a wave and a catalyst to accelerate a tendency that would have come about in any event, but for different reasons and at a different pace. So will AI's tsunami boom global trade or bust it through localization and promoting local manufacturing? In the short term, it will boost efficiencies. Transporters are hailing such virtues to their clients and promising fantastic software programs which will oil global trade, making it practically frictionless. It's an ideal, but perhaps represents a cure for a problem that may no longer exist, like a miracle cure for an illness that has been largely eradicated. Because I say that AI will give rise to shifts to self-sufficiency, reducing international trade volumes in the long run, and globalization as we know it and think of it. And this will reduce or even dispense with the need for means to make international trade even more efficient than it already is. Because the volume of international trade is likely to generally decrease. But I will tell you this, you ain't seen nothing yet. Because if you think the world is changing fast because of AI, just wait for quantum computing, which will multiply the pace of AI and the predictions that I have made during this episode to speeds faster than C. The speed of light. The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, then you should engage an appropriately qualified person to provide you specific advisory services in the field. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this podcast are my own and do not necessarily represent the views, thoughts, or opinions of any law firm, nor that of any third party, other person, company, or organization. Stay tuned for the next episode.